24. C. FORSYTH
Information acquired: 2025
C. FORSYTH is an academic who published a paper in 2020 entitled Probabilistic Forecasts of Storm Sudden Commencements From Interplanetary Shocks Using Machine Learn. C. FORSYTH published this work as part of a team: Smith, A. W.. Here is a description of this work: In ,,his study we investigate the ability of several different machine learning models to provide probabilistic predictions as to whether interplanetary shocks observed upstream of the Earth at L1 will lead to immediate (Sudden Commencements, SCs) or longer lasting magnetospheric activity (Storm Sudden Commencements, SSCs). Four models are tested including linear (Logistic Regression), nonlinear (Naive Bayes and Gaussian Process), and ensemble (Random Forest) models and are shown to provide skillful and reliable forecasts of SCs with Brier Skill Scores (BSSs) of ∼0. 3 and ROC scores >,0.8. The most powerful predictive parameter is found to be the range in the interplanetary magnetic field. The models also produce skillful forecasts of SSCs, though with less reliability than was found for SCs. The BSSs and ROC scores returned are ∼0. 21 and.